Predicting the Effect of Climate Change on Potato Production in Fereidunshahr (Isfahan, Central Iran) and Evaluation of Adaptation Strategies (Adopting Cultivars and Planting Dates)

Strategies to enhance local adaptation capacity are needed to mitigate climate change impacts and to maintain regional stability of food production. The objectives of this study were to simulate the climate change effects on phenology stages, potato production in the future and to explore the possibilities of employing planting dates and various varieties (Agria, Arinda and Santeh) as mitigating options to decrease the climate change impacts on potato production in Feridonshahr, Isfahan province, Central Iran. For this purpose, we employed two types of General Circulation Models ((United Kingdom Met. Office Hadley Center: HadCM3) and (Institute Pierre Simon Laplace: IPCM4)) and three scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) for three time periods of 2030, 2060 and 2090. LARS-WG was used to produce daily climatic parameters as one stochastic growing season for each projection period and SUBSTOR-Potato model was used to simulate potato growth. Time period from cultivation until flowering and tuber yield were reduced in a majority of the climate change scenarios. Simulation results indicated that delayed planting (5 June) alleviated the harmful effects of climate change by improving tuber yield, while early planting (5 May) in both GCMs and under all scenarios reduced tuber yield compared with the conventional planting date. Arinda (early maturing), Sante and Agria (conventional maturing) varieties had higher tuber yield in all scenarios. Selecting 5 June and Arinda as the planting date and variety of choice will alleviate negative effects of climate change and seem to be the most appropriate approach of cultural management in the studied region.